Impacts of climate change, including acidification, on marine ecosystems and fisheries

Marine ecosystems have always been affected by changes in climate at timescales from decades to millions of years. Since the industrial revolution in the nineteenth century the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) has caused an accelerating rise in global temperature whose effects on marine biota can be detected at individual, population and ecosystem level. The rising level of CO₂ and consequent acidification of the oceans is having an impact on metabolism and calcification in many organisms, with damage to vulnerable ecosystems, such as coral reefs, already occurring. The pH of the oceans is already lower now than it has been for the past 600,000 years.

The potential impacts of ocean acidification: scaling from physiology to fisheries

Views expressed on the potential impact of ocean acidification range from wholesale degradation of marine ecosystems through to no discernable impact with minimal consequences. Constraining this range of predictions is necessary for the development of informed policy and management. The direct biological impacts of acidification occur at the molecular and cellular level; however, it is the expression of these effects at the population and ecosystem level that is of societal concern. Here, we consider the potential impact of ocean acidification on fisheries with particular emphasis on approaches to scaling from physiological responses to population- and ecosystem-level processes. In some instances, impacts of ocean acidification may lead to changes in the relative species composition at a given trophic level without affecting the overall productivity, whilst in other instances, ocean acidification may lead to a reduction in productivity at a given tropic level. Because of the scale at which ecological processes operate, modelling studies are required. Here, ocean acidification is situated within ongoing research into the ecological dynamics of perturbed systems, for which many models have already been developed. Whilst few existing models currently explicitly represent physiological processes sensitive to ocean acidification, some examples of how ocean acidification effects may be emulated within existing models are discussed. Answering the question of how acidification may impact fisheries requires the integration of knowledge across disciplines; this contribution aims to facilitate the inclusion of higher trophic level ecology into this ongoing debate and discussion.

Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic

Previous global analyses projected shifts in species distributions and maximum fisheries catch potential across ocean basins by 2050 under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B. However, these studies did not account for the effects of changes in ocean biogeochemistry and phytoplankton community structure that affect fish and invertebrate distribution and productivity. This paper uses a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model that incorporates these factors to project distribution and maximum catch potential of 120 species of exploited demersal fish and invertebrates in the Northeast Atlantic. Using projections from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model (ESM2.1) under the SRES A1B, we project an average rate of distribution-centroid shift of 52 km decade−1 northwards and 5.1 m decade−1 deeper from 2005 to 2050. Ocean acidification and reduction in oxygen content reduce growth performance, increase the rate of range shift, and lower the estimated catch potentials (10-year average of 2050 relative to 2005) by 20–30% relative to simulations without considering these factors. Consideration of phytoplankton community structure may further reduce projected catch potentials by ∼10%. These results highlight the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to biogeochemical changes and the need to incorporate likely hypotheses of their biological and ecological effects in assessing climate change impacts.

The effects of climate change on aquaculture

Climate change is an additional pressure on top of the many (fishing pressure, loss of habitat, pollution, disturbance, introduced species) which fish stocks already experience. The impact of climate change must be evaluated in the context of other anthropogenic pressures, which often have much greater and more immediate effect. Factors that can shape climate are climate changes. These include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth’s orbit, mountain-building and continental drift, and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in reaction to climate changes because of their large mass. Therefore, the climate system can take centuries or longer to fully respond to new external changes. Many of the studies made assumptions about changes in baseline socioeconomic conditions, adaptation, and biophysical processes. Almost all of the studies we examined estimated that there will be increasing adverse impacts beyond an approximate 3 to 4°C increase in global mean temperature. The studies do not show a consistent relationship between impacts and global mean temperatures between 0 and 3 to 4°C. In coastal resources it is clear that impacts will be adverse with low levels of temperature change.

Inorganic carbon dynamics in the upwelling system off the Oregon coast and implications for commercial shellfish hatcheries

The increasing absorption of anthropogenic CO2 by the global ocean and concomitant decrease in pH will alter seawater carbonate chemistry in ways that may negatively impact calcifying organisms. In particular, the change in saturation state (Ω) of calcium carbonate minerals calcite and aragonite may be energetically unfavorable for shell formation while favoring shell dissolution. Eastern boundary upwelling systems may provide insights into how ecosystems respond to future conditions of ocean acidification when deep water with high dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), low pH and low Ω is forced toward the surface. Mortality in commercial seed stock and reduced wild set of the oyster Crassostrea gigas in the northeast Pacific during 2005-2009 reinforced the need for understanding biological responses to acidified ocean water. In response, a long-term strategy to understand local carbonate chemistry dynamics, seasonal perturbations and the effects on development of calcifying bivalves was developed. At present, a time-series of pCO2 measurements was implemented in April 2010 in Netarts Bay, Oregon at Whiskey Creek Shellfish Hatchery (WCH). The intake sits at a depth of 0.5-8ft and water is pumped in at 100gpm. A line taken off the intake is run continuously through a thermosalinograph at approximately 1.5gpm into a showerhead style equilibrator in which the headspace is recirculated by aerating the water for enhanced gas exchange. CO2 in equilibrated air is analyzed by NDIR. Additionally two discrete samples of intake seawater were taken across tidal cycles weekly and analyzed for total CO2 (TCO2) according to the methods of Hales et al. (2004) and pCO2 for quality control. The pCO2 in the bay exhibits a diurnal cycle representative of daytime photosynthesis and nighttime respiration. However, the phasing and profiles of these cycles are dominated by tidal mixing and are affected by the introduction of high pCO2 water during upwelling events. Diurnal pCO2 during periods of low wind stress ranges from 100-700µatm. When strong equatorward winds induce upwelling, pCO2 levels exhibit a higher daily range of 300-2000µatm. The saturation state was calculated from the pCO2/TCO2 measurements of the discrete samples. The Ω for calcite and aragonite ranged from 2.07 and 1.15 to 8.58 and 4.69 respectively from April through August. Increased pCO2 and decreased pH have been shown to negatively impact larval development in C. gigas (Kurihara, 2007). Periods of elevated pCO2 in May and June 2010 correlated with commercial losses at WCH. The use of precise pCO2 measurements in real time has proven to be a valuable tool for use in aquaculture. As a commercial practice WCH has elected to only use source water that is below empirical pCO2 thresholds for spawning and culturing larvae. This has resulted in continued production and cost saving in an industry crucial to coast economies. A continuous TCO2/pCO2 monitoring system will be integrated into this long time-series to constrain inorganic carbon providing insight into carbonate chemistry dynamics in Netarts Bay, effects of ocean acidification on bivalve development and possible water treatment approaches for commercial aquaculture.

Adaptation to impacts of greenhouse gases on the ocean

Greenhouse gases are producing changes in ocean temperature and circulation, and these changes are already adversely affecting marine biota. Furthermore, carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans from the atmosphere, and this too is already adversely affecting some marine ecosystems. And, of course, sea-level rise affects both what is above and below the waterline. Clearly, the most effective approach to limit the negative impacts of climate change and acidification on the marine environment is to greatly diminish the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are other measures that can be taken to limit some of the negative effects of these stresses in the marine environment. Marine ecosystems are subject to multiple stresses, including overfishing, pollution, and loss of coastal wetlands that often serve as nurseries for the open ocean. The adaptive capacity of marine environments can be improved by limiting these other stresses. If current carbon dioxide emission trends continue, for some cases (e.g., coral reefs), it is possible that no amount of reduction in other stresses can offset the increase in stresses posed by warming and acidification. For other cases (e.g., blue-water top-predator fisheries), better fisheries management might yield improved population health despite continued warming and acidification. In addition to reducing stresses so as to improve the adaptive capacity of marine ecosystems, there is also the issue of adaptation in human communities that depend on this changing marine environment. For example, communities that depend on services provided by coral reefs may need to locate alternative foundations for their economies. The fishery industry will need to adapt to changes in fish abundance, timing and location. Most of the things we would like to do to increase the adaptive capacity of marine ecosystems (e.g., reduce fishing pressure, reduce coastal pollution, preserve coastal wetlands) are things that would make sense to do even in the absence of threats from climate change and ocean acidification. Therefore, these measures represent “no regrets” policy options for the marine environment. Nevertheless, even with adaptive policies in place, continued greenhouse gas emissions increasingly risk damaging marine ecosystems and the human communities that depend on them.

Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries

Anthropogenic global warming has significantly influenced physical and biological processes at global and regional scales. The observed and anticipated changes in global climate present significant opportunities and challenges for societies and economies. We compare the vulnerability of 132 national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator-based approach. Countries in Central and Western Africa (e.g. Malawi, Guinea, Senegal, and Uganda), Peru and Colombia in north-western South America, and four tropical Asian countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Yemen) were identified as most vulnerable. This vulnerability was due to the combined effect of predicted warming, the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts and opportunities. Many vulnerable countries were also among the world’s least developed countries whose inhabitants are among the world’s poorest and twice as reliant on fish, which provides 27% of dietary protein compared to 13% in less vulnerable countries. These countries also produce 20% of the world’s fish exports and are in greatest need of adaptation planning to maintain or enhance the contribution that fisheries can make to poverty reduction. Although the precise impacts and direction of climate-driven change for particular fish stocks and fisheries are uncertain, our analysis suggests they are likely to lead to either increased economic hardship or missed opportunities for development in countries that depend upon fisheries but lack the capacity to adapt.